Bananas
could replace potatoes in warming world.
Bananas could take the place of potatoes in some developing countries
Climate change could lead to crops from the banana family becoming a
critical food source for millions of people, a new report says.
Researchers from the CGIAR agricultural partnership say the fruit might
replace potatoes in some developing countries.
Cassava and the little-known cowpea plant could be much more important food
crops as temperatures rise.
People will have to adapt to new and varied menus as traditional crops
struggle, say the authors.
“Start Quote
When the farmers see the problems they are having with production, they
really are willing to shift”
Bruce Campbell CCAFS
Responding to a request from the United Nations' committee on world
food security, a group of experts in the
field looked at the projected effects of climate change on 22 of the world's
most important agricultural commodities.
Blooming bananas
They predict that the world's three biggest crops in terms of calories
provided - maize, rice and wheat - will decrease in many developing countries.
They suggest that the potato, which grows best in cooler climates, could
also suffer as temperatures increase and weather becomes more volatile.
The authors argue that these changes "could provide an opening for
cultivating certain varieties of bananas" at higher altitudes, even in
those places that currently grow potatoes.
Dr Philip Thornton is one of those behind the report. He told BBC News that
while bananas and plantains also have limiting factors, they may be a good
substitute for potatoes in certain locations.
"It's not necessarily a silver bullet, but there may be places where
as temperatures increase, bananas might be one option that small-holders could
start to look at."
The report describes wheat as the world's most important plant-derived
protein and calorie source.
But according to this research, wheat will face a difficult future in the
developing world, where higher prices for cotton, maize and soybeans have
pushed wheat to marginal land, making it more vulnerable to stresses induced by
climate change.
One substitute, especially in South Asia, could be cassava - which is known
to be tolerant to a range of climate stresses.
But how easy will it be to get people to adjust to new crops and new diets?
Bruce Campbell is programme director of the Climate Change, Agriculture and
Food Security research group (CCAFS) which
co-ordinates work among leading institutions around the world. He told BBC News
that the types of changes that will happen in the future have already happened
in the past.
Protein under pressure
"Two decades ago there was almost no rice consumption in certain areas
of Africa, now there is. People have changed because of the pricing: it's
easier to get, it's easier to cook. I think those sort of shifts do occur and I
think they will in future."
About bananas
- There are hundreds of types of banana plants but not all actually produce fruit
- They grow on plants that are giant herbs and are part of the Musaceae family
- Plantains are starchy like a potato, not sweet like a regular banana
- Organised banana plantations have been traced back to China in 200 AD
- Alexander the Great brought them back from India after his conquest in 327 BC
- Over the centuries they have been called banna, ghana and funana
Source: Dole
One of the big concerns among researchers is how to tackle the need for
protein in the diet. Soybeans are one of the most common sources but are very
susceptible to temperature changes.
The scientists say that the cowpea, which is known in sub-Saharan Africa as
the "poor man's meat" is drought-tolerant and prefers warmer weather
and could be a reasonable alternative to soya. The vines of the cowpea can also
be used as a feed for livestock.
In some countries, including Nigeria and Niger, farmers have already moved
away from cotton production to growing cowpeas.
There are also likely to be developments in animal protein sources says the
report, including a shift to smaller livestock.
"This is an example of something that's happening already," said
Dr Campbell. "There's been quite a shift from cattle keeping to goat
keeping in southern Africa in face of droughts - when the farmers see the
problems they are having with production, they really are willing to shift.
"Change is really possible. It's not just a crazy notion."
Source: Matt McGrath Science reporter, BBC World Service
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